Could traditional Tory voters turn away from the party amid the UK’s mortgage misery?
The rising cost of mortgages is causing misery across the country.
In its efforts to tackle inflation, the Bank of England has hiked interest rates for 14 months in a row. But with 1.4 million households ending their fixed-term mortgages this year and another 1.6 million next year – huge numbers of people are facing eye-watering increases in their monthly payments.
Of course this means a huge number of voters will be feeling the pain ahead of the next general election. The 40 constituencies with the highest proportion of mortgage holders are all currently Conservative – but could that be set to change amid the shock of the cost of living crisis?
“Our mortgage is going up by about £400 a month from the start of September. It’s a big jump, along with all the other bills going up,” said Megan Harrison, a geography teacher I met pushing her baby round the shops in Pudsey.
The Yorkshire town on the outskirts of Leeds is the constituency with the seventh highest proportion of mortgages – 38.1%, compared to the national average of 28.7%.
But with median incomes there at £657 a week – only just above the national figure of £640 – higher interest rates are hitting hard.
Squeezed middle
“We’ve got a young daughter and she’s 14 months old now, but obviously we weren’t expecting this when we bought the house,” said Megan. “There isn’t really an alternative. We looked at selling the house, perhaps getting a much cheaper one – apparently we’re actually still better off to stay but we’re really worried and just kind of hoping to ride it out the best we can. If we can’t, I’m not actually sure what we can do. We still need a roof over our heads. It’s scary.”
Lee Naylor, who has two grown up sons and works in a supermarket, thought she’d be close to retiring by now. Instead she’s worrying about how to keep up with her mortgage.
“It was about £365 a month. That wasn’t a massive bill – but it’s now gone up to £450 a month, and it just keeps creeping up and up and up,” she said. “My husband drives an articulated lorry – he’s just doing as many hours overtime as he can. Obviously the food prices are going up. Everything’s just going up and up.
“This should be our time of life when we can start enjoying ourselves a little bit more. But it’s really stressful. You wake up in the middle of the night just thinking – how much higher is it going to go?”
The Pudsey Community Project – which supports six hundred people a week with a food bank, low-cost pantry and lunch clubs – has seen a big increase in demand. Director Richard Dimery said the extra mortgage payments are pushing some families over the edge.
“A lot of the people we’re supporting are also in full-time work. They’re in mortgage situations and it’s just another struggle for them to have to deal with.
“There are an awful lot of people struggling. I think what’s changed over this period has been that more of those people who are struggling are those with middle incomes, those who aren’t affluent but have been okay and now they’re struggling.”
The constituency has had a Conservative MP since 2010 – although it was Labour during the Blair/Brown years. But at the last election Stuart Andrew’s majority fell to 3,517. He recently announced he wouldn’t be standing there again (boundary changes are coming into play the next time around too) and Labour are clearly hoping to win their former voters back.
‘No loyalty towards the Conservatives’
Most homeowners we spoke to in Pudsey believe the issue will have a big impact on the next election.
“I’ve got no loyalty towards the Conservative Party anymore,” said Lee. “I definitely think I will be voting Labour next time.”
“I’m pretty certain I’m not going to vote for the current party because they’re the ones who got us into this mess,” added Megan. “But I understand there’s certain things going on that aren’t in their control.”
Jim Horrobin has a meeting with his bank shortly to discuss his mortgage options – though he’s been told it’s likely to mean a monthly increase of around £240.
“It’s a financial hit of course, though I think we’re in a better position than many people”, he said.
But he’s angry about the broader situation.
“I voted Conservative last time, I’ll never do it again, ever… for as long as I live.”
But others are more confident about the party’s prospects.
“I’m sure that the mortgage situation will have an impact on how people vote,” said Richard Gibb, a local mortgage adviser. “But I’m also sure that the government will do everything they can to make sure that it is a more positive story in the lead up to the general election.”
Some 200 miles south of Pudsey in Wokingham, Berkshire, the geography is very different – but the pressures are the same.
The constituency has the second highest proportion of mortgages in the country – at 39.9%, just fractionally behind South Northamptonshire at 40.0%.
Voters there are better off, on average – the median income is £740, compared to the national figure of £640.
But while historically it’s always been a Conservative stronghold – it’s incumbent John Redwood was first elected in 1987 – his majority fell substantially in 2019, to 7,383. The seat is a Liberal Democrat target in the so-called blue wall.
Rachel Norris, a mum of two, has been renting locally for years – but the interest rate hikes meant she had to move away in order to buy her first home this summer.
“With the interest rates going up, it just limited how much we could really afford to borrow, ” she said. “We’ve had to leave the area, to a cheaper area. We’ve had to move our whole family and my daughter’s school. It’s been difficult.
“I do hope people start to look at the housing issues and start to put more pressure on politicians to make a difference.”
Michael Higham, who grew up in Wokingham, said many of his childhood friends have been forced to move out too. The end of his fixed term mortgage is rapidly approaching – and that means having to cut back on everything.
“I’m renewing in January and I think it’s going to double my mortgage, which is very worrying, to be honest,” he said. “It’s an extra £600 a month. That’s an awful lot of money. So it will affect a lot of what I do. My social life will take a massive hit. I’m not going to be able to go out and eat food out, or have any little extras like clothes. Not great.”
Does he think the mortgage crisis will have an impact on voting intentions?
“I’d like to think so. I think my family is probably quite a Conservative family and I don’t think they’re going to be voting that way in the future now.”
But mum of two Georgina Cato doesn’t believe change is imminent.
“It’s always been Tory here and I don’t really see that changing,” she said. ” I think the younger generation that possibly would vote alternatively tend to be pushed out from this area because of the houses and how much they cost. So I don’t personally see that changing, I don’t know whether it will impact my own vote. It’s hard to say until the vote rolls around.”
Teacher Rachel Tetchner is just hoping rates come down before she has to renew her mortgage in two years time, as current rates would see her facing a £600 monthly hike.
“I think it is going to have an impact next time around,” she said.
“But whoever is going to be in charge is going to have a big problem to pick up.”
‘Near the peak of interest rates’
Steve Woodford is executive chair of the Haslams Group of estate agents in Berkshire. He’s been working in the area for 40 years – and hopes the cost of mortgages will start falling substantially soon.
“We’re not yet seeing the kind of impact we saw in 1988 or 2008”, he said.
“Personally I think we’re probably coming near to the peak with interest rates. I can’t guarantee that. But I think we’re likely to see interest rates come down in the run up to the election. That tends to be how it’s worked historically. Obviously if they stay high, that will have an impact and it will affect the market.
“The market is all based on confidence. It’s pretty fragile at the best of times.”
When approached by Sky News for comment, an HM Treasury spokesperson said: “The best thing we can do for borrowers with mortgages of any term is bear down on inflation and our plan to halve it this year is working, with the majority of external forecasters expecting us to achieve our ambition.
“Our Mortgage Charter, covering 90% of the mortgage market, is already helping people get through this difficult time by giving extra protections against repossessions and making it easier to manage monthly repayments.”